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Abstract:
Motivation: cis-regulatory DNA sequence elements, such as enhancers and silencers, function to control the spatial and temporal expression of their target genes. Although the overall levels of gene expression in large cell populations seem to be precisely controlled, transcription of individual genes in single cells is extremely variable in real time. It is, therefore, important to understand how these cis-regulatory elements function to dynamically control transcription at single-cell resolution. Recently, statistical methods have been proposed to back calculate the rates involved in mRNA transcription using parameter estimation of a mathematical model of transcription and translation. However, a major complication in these approaches is that some of the parameters, particularly those corresponding to the gene copy number and transcription rate, cannot be distinguished; therefore, these methods cannot be used when the copy number is unknown.

Results: Here, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate biokinetic parameters from live cell enhancer–promoter reporter measurements performed on a population of single cells. This allows us to investigate transcriptional dynamics when the copy number is variable across the population. We validate our method using synthetic data and then apply it to quantify the function of two known developmental enhancers in real time and in single cells.

Abstract:
A central challenge in computational modeling of dynamic biological systems is parameter inference from experimental time course measurements. However, one would not only like to infer kinetic parameters but also study their variability from cell to cell. Here we focus on the case where single-cell fluorescent protein imaging time series data are available for a population of cells. Based on van Kampen’s linear noise approximation, we derive a dynamic state space model for molecular populations which is then extended to a hierarchical model. This model has potential to address the sources of variability relevant to single-cell data, namely, intrinsic noise due to the stochastic nature of the birth and death processes involved in reactions and extrinsic noise arising from the cell-to-cell variation of kinetic parameters. In order to infer such a model from experimental data, one must also quantify the measurement process where one has to allow for nonmeasurable molecular species as well as measurement noise of unknown level and variance. The availability of multiple single-cell time series data here provides a unique testbed to fit such a model and quantify these different sources of variation from experimental data.

Keywords:
Linear noise approximation, kinetic parameter estimation, intrinsic and extrinsic noise, state space model and Kalman filter, Bayesian hierarchical modeling

Abstract:
Fluorescent and luminescent proteins are often used as reporters of transcriptional activity. Given the prevalence of noise in biochemical systems, the time-series data arising from these is of significant interest in efforts to calibrate stochastic models of gene expression and obtain information about sources of nongenetic variability. We present a statistical inference framework that can be used to estimate kinetic parameters of gene expression, as well as the strength and half-life of extrinsic noise from single fluorescent-reporter-gene time-series data. The method takes into account stochastic variability in a fluorescent signal resulting from intrinsic noise of gene expression, kinetics of fluorescent protein maturation, and extrinsic noise, which is assumed to arise at transcriptional level. We use the linear noise approximation and derive an explicit formula for the likelihood of observed fluorescent data. The method is embedded in a Bayesian paradigm, so that certain parameters can be informed from other experiments allowing portability of results across different studies. Inference is performed using Markov chain Monte Carlo. Fluorescent reporters are primary tools to observe dynamics of gene expression and the correct interpretation of fluorescent data is crucial to investigating these fundamental processes of cellular life. As both magnitude and frequency of the noise may have a dramatic effect on the cell fitness, the quantification of stochastic fluctuation is essential to the understanding of how genes are regulated. Our method provides a framework that addresses this important question.