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Banerjee M.♦, Lipniacki T., d’Onofrio A.♦, Volpert V.♦, Epidemic model with strain-dependent transmission rate,
COMMUNICATIONS IN NONLINEAR SCIENCE AND NUMERICAL SIMULATION, ISSN: 1007-5704, DOI: 10.1016/j.cnsns.2022.106641, Vol.114, pp.106641-1-17, 2022 Abstract:
Persistent epidemic can lead to the emergence of new virus strains due to virus mutations. This work is devoted to the SIR model with strain-dependence of infected individuals due to virus mutations and a continuous strain variable. Characterization of epidemic progression is obtained for a strain-dependent infectivity function in numerical simulations and with some analytical estimates. Taking into account limited infection-induced immunity, transition from recovered to susceptible compartment is considered. Different scenarios of epidemic progression are identified. In the case of a monotonically growing transmission rate as a function of strain, only one epidemic outbreak is observed. However, if the transmission rate is a non-monotonic function, then multiple outbreaks can occur. Keywords:
epidemic model, strain-dependent transmission rate, reinfection Affiliations:
| Banerjee M. | - | Indian Institute of Technology (IN) | | Lipniacki T. | - | IPPT PAN | | d’Onofrio A. | - | University of Trieste (IT) | | Volpert V. | - | University Lyon (FR) |
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| 2. |
Volpert V.♦, Banerjee M.♦, D Onofrio♦, Lipniacki T., Petrovskii S.♦, Tran V.C.♦, Coronavirus - Scientific insights and societal aspects,
MATHEMATICAL MODELLING OF NATURAL PHENOMENA, ISSN: 0973-5348, DOI: 10.1051/mmnp/2020010, Vol.15, pp.E2-1-8, 2020Abstract:
In December 2019, the first case of infection with a new virus COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2), named coronavirus, was reported in the city of Wuhan, China. At that time, almost nobody paid any attention to it. The new pathogen, however, fast proved to be extremely infectious and dangerous, resulting in about 3–5% mortality. Over the few months that followed, coronavirus has spread over entire world. At the end of March, the total number of infections is fast approaching the psychological threshold of one million, resulting so far in tens of thousands of deaths. Due to the high number of lives already lost and the virus high potential for further spread, and due to its huge overall impact on the economies and societies, it is widely admitted that coronavirus poses the biggest challenge to the humanity after the second World war. The COVID-19 epidemic is provoking numerous questions at all levels. It also shows that modern society is extremely vulnerable and unprepared to such events. A wide scientific and public discussion becomes urgent. Some possible directions of this discussion are suggested in this article. Keywords:
COVID-19, epidemic progression, mathematical models, crisis management, open questions Affiliations:
| Volpert V. | - | University Lyon (FR) | | Banerjee M. | - | Indian Institute of Technology (IN) | | D Onofrio | - | International Prevention Research Institute (FR) | | Lipniacki T. | - | IPPT PAN | | Petrovskii S. | - | University of Leicester (GB) | | Tran V.C. | - | University Gustave Eiffel (FR) |
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